UK Net Migration Figures: What They Include and Exclude

Net migration is often presented as a single number, but it isn’t a count of everyone who crosses Britain’s borders. UK net migration figures measure long-term movement, using a defined statistical rule that can exclude many short stays.

That distinction matters when a headline claims immigration has risen or fallen. The latest provisional estimate, for the year ending December 2025, puts net migration at 171,000, after revisions and major changes to the way some movements are measured.

Key Takeaways

• Net migration is long-term immigration minus long-term emigration.
• The ONS counts people who intend to move for at least 12 months.
• Visitors, transit passengers, seasonal workers and short-course students are generally excluded.
• British citizens, EU+ nationals, non-EU+ nationals and eligible asylum seekers can all appear in the figures.
• Recent estimates have changed because the ONS now uses administrative data alongside visa and border information.

How the UK calculates net migration

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) follows the United Nations definition of a long-term international migrant. A person counts as an immigrant if they arrive intending to live in the UK for at least 12 months. An emigrant is someone who leaves intending to live abroad for the same period.

The calculation is:

Net migration = long-term immigration – long-term emigration

If 813,000 people arrive for at least a year and 642,000 leave for at least a year, the resulting net figure is 171,000. These are the latest provisional totals for the year ending December 2025, published in the ONS provisional migration bulletin.

This is different from gross immigration. Gross immigration counts people arriving, regardless of how many leave. Net migration takes account of both directions, so a large immigration total can produce a smaller net figure when emigration is also high.

The number also isn’t a direct count of people who have gained British citizenship. Nationality and citizenship can change without creating a new migration event. Similarly, births, deaths and internal moves between UK nations don’t enter the net migration calculation.

The ONS reports the headline figure as a rounded estimate. As a result, adding or subtracting published components may produce a small difference. The figures can also be revised when better information becomes available.

Who is included in the migration statistics?

The ONS divides long-term migration into broad nationality groups. These categories help explain where the overall figure comes from, but they don’t change the 12-month rule.

Non-EU+ nationals

People from outside the EU and the associated European countries are usually measured using Home Office visa information, travel records and other data. The group includes people arriving for:

• Work
• Study
• Family reasons
• Humanitarian protection or asylum
• Other routes that allow a long-term stay

A visa grant isn’t automatically the same as a long-term arrival. Visa data can include permissions for shorter periods, so statisticians must assess whether the person actually arrives and intends to remain for 12 months or more.

The latest provisional data estimates 627,000 non-EU immigration arrivals in 2025, around 20% fewer than the previous year. Work and study accounted for 67% of that total.

EU+ nationals

The ONS uses “EU+” for citizens of the EU, plus Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland. These citizens can enter the statistics when they move to the UK, or leave it, with an expected stay of at least a year.

EU migration data needs different sources because visa records don’t cover most EU citizens who arrived before the end of the Brexit transition period. The ONS now uses Home Office Borders and Immigration data, known as HOBI, alongside travel information and administrative records.

EU+ net migration had fallen into negative territory by the year ending June 2025, at an estimated minus 70,000. That means more EU+ citizens were estimated to leave the UK than arrive during that period.

British citizens

British nationals count too. If a British citizen moves abroad for at least 12 months, that person contributes to emigration. If they later return with an expected long-term stay, they contribute to immigration.

This point is often missed in political arguments. Net migration isn’t limited to foreign nationals entering Britain. In 2025, British net migration was estimated at minus 136,000, although the ONS describes this estimate as highly uncertain.

The ONS now uses RAPID, an administrative data system built from records held by the Department for Work and Pensions, HM Revenue and Customs, and the Department for Education. These records help identify changes in where people live and whether they continue to interact with UK public services.

Asylum seekers and irregular arrivals

The route used to enter the country doesn’t decide whether someone appears in long-term migration data. An asylum seeker or a person who arrives through an irregular route can be included if the available evidence indicates an intended stay of at least 12 months.

That means people arriving by small boat may appear in the statistics, but not because the ONS has created a separate “small boats” measure within net migration. Their inclusion depends on their expected length of stay and how the movement is recorded.

The same principle applies to people who enter through regular work, study or family routes. The statistical definition measures duration and direction of movement, rather than making a separate judgement about whether the route is legal or illegal.

What UK net migration figures leave out

The 12-month threshold excludes many people who enter or leave Britain. This can make the headline number look different from public perceptions at ports, airports, universities or seasonal workplaces.

Type of movement	Included in long-term net migration?
Tourist staying for a holiday	No
Transit passenger passing through the UK	No
Seasonal Worker visa lasting up to six months	No
Short-course student staying under 12 months	No
Student intending to remain for at least 12 months	Yes
Worker taking a long-term job in the UK	Yes
British citizen emigrating for at least 12 months	Yes
Asylum seeker expected to stay for at least 12 months	Yes

Visitors and transit passengers are excluded from the migration totals. A tourist can spend several weeks in Britain without appearing in long-term immigration figures.

Seasonal workers are another important example. The Seasonal Worker visa normally allows agricultural or horticultural work for up to six months, so these workers fall below the long-term threshold. Their presence can still affect farms, local services and labour supply, but it won’t normally increase the headline net migration number.

Short-term students are also left out of long-term migration. A student on a course lasting less than 12 months may appear in separate short-term migration data, but not in the main net migration estimate. Someone starting a longer university course can be included.

Short-term business trips, repeated visits and other circular movements are generally excluded as well. The statistics are designed to measure people changing their country of residence, not every journey across the border.

The Migration Observatory’s briefing on UK migration flows provides further context on the difference between long-term migration, short-term movement and visitor numbers.

Why migration estimates change after publication

Migration figures are estimates, not a live register of every person in the country. The ONS combines several sources, and each source has limits.

For non-EU+ nationals, visa and Home Office records provide important evidence. For EU+ nationals, the ONS uses HOBI and other information because visa data alone cannot show the full picture. British migration relies increasingly on RAPID and linked administrative records.

The ONS stopped collecting British national arrival information through the International Passenger Survey on 1 July 2024. It then used administrative data to improve estimates of British emigration. That change produced a sharp revision for the year ending December 2024.

British emigration was initially estimated at 77,000. The later RAPID-based estimate increased it to 257,000. That extra 180,000 departures reduced the revised net migration figure for 2024 by about 100,000, taking it to 331,000.

The Migration Advisory Committee’s report on net migration explains how the ONS definition works and why different data sources affect the estimates.

Revisions don’t mean the original estimate was deliberately misleading. They show that the first release used the information available at that time. However, anyone comparing figures across years should check whether the method stayed the same and whether later revisions changed the earlier totals.

The latest 2025 figure is also provisional. Future updates may alter immigration, emigration or both. British emigration remains the least certain component, so the headline number should be treated as a measured estimate rather than an exact tally.

How to read the headline number in political debate

A net migration figure answers one narrow question: how many more long-term migrants are estimated to have arrived than left during a particular period?

It doesn’t answer how many people are currently living in Britain who were born abroad. It doesn’t show how many arrivals entered through each route unless the supporting tables are examined. It also doesn’t measure the total number of visitors, seasonal workers or short-term students.

For a fuller picture, look at four figures together:

1. Long-term immigration
2. Long-term emigration
3. Net migration
4. The nationality and visa routes behind the totals

For example, the 2025 estimate of 813,000 long-term arrivals and 642,000 departures produced net migration of 171,000. Looking only at the final number hides the scale of movement in both directions.

Political parties can then argue about what the figures mean and what policy should follow. Reform UK’s official website sets out the party’s position on immigration, border control and enforcement. Its local campaign material also outlines a proposed border enforcement policy.

Those policy arguments should be kept separate from the statistical definition. A proposal to reduce visa numbers, remove people without legal status or change settlement rules may affect future figures, but it doesn’t alter what the current ONS total includes.

Conclusion

UK net migration figures count long-term immigration minus long-term emigration. They include eligible workers, students, family migrants, British citizens moving in either direction, EU+ nationals and some asylum seekers, provided the expected move lasts at least 12 months.

Visitors, transit passengers, seasonal workers and other short-term movements stay outside the headline total. Because the ONS uses changing data sources and revises early estimates, the most reliable reading combines the headline figure with its underlying totals and methodology.

The number matters, but so does knowing what the number actually measures.